Paradox of Europe – The New York Times

While the United States abandon Ukraine and Europe with it, the leaders of the continent are closing the ranks and are arranged to defend their democracies against Russia. In Great Britain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer arouses comparisons A Winston Churchill. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is channeling Charles De Gaulle’s topic for independence from Washington. Germany has changed its rigid budget rules to spend more in defense. Marco Rubio, the United States Secretary of State, came to Brussels yesterday hasten.

But Russia is not the only threat to democracy in Europe. Extreme right and autocratic parts here gained ground for a decade. Already part of the government in six capital. And the impulse of increasing the defense may excite their voters.

Europe is raising to combat fascism and autocracy abroad. Unfortunately, this can also enhance fascism and autocracy at home.

Welfare vs. Warfare

To understand why, recalls the state of European politics: economies are stagnant, governments are unpopular and efforts to maintain the extreme exit from the coalition governments are barely detained. Now, as critics see it, leaders want to spend money containing Russia instead of helping their citizens.

In Great Britain, Starmer plans to increase military spending from 2.3 percent of the economy today to 3 % at the beginning of the next decade. At the same time, he plans to cut the annual wellness invoice of Great Britain of about 5 billion pounds (about 6.5 million dollars) per year. It is a risky proposal after the economy has reduced to January and at a time when the United Kingdom Party of Hard-Wight Reform is taking the Labor heels in some regions of the working class. British voters say that the expenditure for well -being is more important than military spending. “Welfare Not Warfare”, read a banner to protests last week.

Macron faces similar twenty contrary twenty in France. The voters claim to support a stronger soldier but do not want to pay it by increasing taxes, decreasing social spending or increasing retirement age. Macron has already promised not to increase taxes, so some cuts in social spending seem likely. Now the parties on the far right and the extreme left smell: Macron is using the Ukrainian war to “justify the destruction of the social state”, wrote a right -wing legislator on X. Reduce social services in favor of the defense is “psychosis”, said the leader of one of the most powerful unions in France.

Already the French Parliament stalled struggles to govern. Political dysfunction – and the idea that could cut popular programs – will help only the extremes. It is not surprising that Marine Le Pen, leader of the national event, maintains a comfortable advantage in the polls for the next presidential elections. (A conviction for embezzlement means that he cannot run, but appeals it.)

Bold or deceptive?

The criticism from the right does not only concern the unpopular budget choices. There is also the feeling that traditional politicians do not listen to voters and do not keep their promises.

Before his conservative party arrived for the first time in the German shot elections last month, Friedrich Merz said he would not have changed the budget rules. But after the elections, he has crossed a constitutional amendment that will allow his future government to spend almost a trillion of euros in the army and in other things. He had to hurry it through the outgoing parliament because, in the newly elected chamber, the pro-Russian parties on the left and the right gained enough seats to block the move.

The right-wing alternative for Germany, or Afd, in particular has spent years to argue that traditional parties adhere to a sort of elitist and translative centrism that gives the voters a little to say in the way their country is governed. So Merz used the legislators leaving to issue a policy against which he had made a campaign. The AFD quickly branded the maneuver as a “gigantic deception of the voters”. Three out of four German voters agree, as well as almost half of Merz’s supporters of the conservative field.

The political cost was immediately evident: the approval assessments for conservatives decreased, while those of the AFD, already the second largest party in Germany, have increased.

Ten years too late

If the pushing of Europe’s rearmament had arrived a decade ago, the invasion and annexation of the 2014 Crimea of ​​Russia had served by alarm bell-compromises would have been different. Then, the European economy was growing Twice faster How it is now. Barack Obama was in the White House. Brexit had not happened. The AFD was a one -year marginal party. The pen was not popular at all. The great European liberal democracies were fit.

Resto is still the only way in which Europe can dissuade Vladimir Putin at a time when Washington has abandoned him. But now governments are fighting for democracy at home and abroad.

The leaders hope that the voters eventually gather behind them in the face of the threats of Putin and President Trump. They also hope that the rearmament will increase growth and production. (Experts say this is plausible but Far from certain.) Yet because they have waited, they can pay a high price: voters can punish those who push for a stronger military. Leaders may be necessary.

There is also another possibility. Re-organization in the name of democracy today could leave tomorrow’s far-right-right governments with close ties with Moscow-responsible for large muscle soldiers.

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