Donald Trump is setting off alarm bells on Wall Street

So, of course, there are Trump rates.

Last week he announced a 25 % rate on all imported vehicles and, while on the weekend he said that “it could not be in a hurry” if the car manufacturers have increased their prices, US consumers care if their new small car is now more expensive than several thousand dollars or their new SUV.

While Trump said that the rates would force the Americans to buy American manufacture cars, the automotive industry and its supply chain is highly globalized and it would take years for American foreign car companies to build plants in the United States that could produce the volume of vehicles now imported.

Obviously, it has already imposed a 25 % rate on aluminum and steel imports, a similar rate on imports from Canada and Mexico, a doubling of the rate on imports from China to 20 % (while threatening more) and the rates controlled on copper, timber and pharmaceutical imports and other sector measures.

Now, Wednesday in the United States, it will announce mutual rates.

Apparently, these should simply combine the rates imposed on US exports from the countries involved, but Trump and his economic team have suggested that they will take into account the non -Tarifase barriers to US exports and referring to the use of taxes assessed and digital services in Europe and elsewhere.

They are also examining things such as product safety, local content requirements and other non -tariff measures of the regulation of digital technology by Lime Europe, in which the giants of American technology have attracted fines of billions of dollars or Australian media and digital platforms of digital platforms.

Trump sees rates as a game at zero sum, with a winner and a loser determined by commercial surpluses and deficit. In reality, they are a game in which nobody wins, even if some will lose more than others.

While there are some exceptions (Notably India) Most of the World’s Trade Attracts Minimal, If Any, Tariffs and So It is Only If the Definition of Mutuality is Stretched to includes non-trade measures-with massive intrusions into the domestic economy and social policies of other country, including America’s Closest Allies – That Trump’s Tariffs Will Have Material Effects, or Raise Material Amounts of Revenue.

On Sunday, Aida Hawk and Bianca Houses, Peter Navarro, told Fox News that the new rates would have collected over $ 6 trillions of dollars in the next decade with the rate on cars imports, which will go live on Wednesday, generating $ US100 billion per year.

If this were accurate, given that the Trump rates will be paid by the importers – not by exporters – and that most of their costs will eventually be borne by US consumers, would be the largest increase in peacetime tax in the history of the United States.

It is assumed that the initial round of mutual rates will be imposed on what the Trump Treasury Secretary, Scott Beesent, has labeled the “Dirty 15”, or 15 % of American commercial partners with the largest commercial surpluses with the United States. China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada and India, head.

The rest of the world could be treated later or by applying the original Trump plan of a universal basic rate.

Whatever the form they take and whether their direct cost is substantial or not as Navarro incurred, they will be very disruptive for the US and global supply chains, negative for US and global growth and, for the United States and the economies that are sold, inflationary.

Trump sees rates as a game at zero sum, with a winner and a loser determined by commercial surpluses and deficit. In reality, they are a game in which nobody wins, even if some will lose more than others.

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The American commercial deficit is more guided by Macro Fattori – a deficiency of internal savings than the investments and consumption – than from the predatory actions of others.

It is doubtful that everything that Trump does will materially reduce the commercial deficit of America, unless it involves a substantial reduction in US life standards and a America that lives within its (decreased) means. It could inadvertently reach it.