Evaluate the chances of Brighton in Europe after two difficult weeks

The twists and turns were relentless while Brighton and Hove Albion pursue a return to European football in their first season under Fabian Hurzeler.

They were in the upper half of the Premier League table in everything, even if this has been masked by the Russian mountains in these nine months.

Brighton was first after their three opening games in August and underwent only two defeats in the 13 games until the end of November. At the beginning of February, however, they had fallen to the tenth with a humiliating 7-0 defeat in Nottingham Forest, having already passed a series of eight games without victories between late November and mid-January.

The model of floating fortunes continued with six consecutive victories in all competitions and then a draw at Manchester City in the seven games after that beat in the forest.

Hurzeler and Brighton faced two weeks (Warren Little/Getty Images)

They have been on the rise again by entering the last international break of the season in March, but since then the losses since then at home with Aston Villa last week (3-0) and in the sudden rivals of Crystal Palace Saturday (2-1) -sul of the loss of a quarter final of the Fa Cup Forests of visitors to the penalties-year renewed the questions-renewed the questions about the fact that they want to reach them ambitions in Europe.

Atletico evaluate their possibilities …

What is the game status?

Hurzeler’s team is ninth in the Premier League with 47 points after 31 of their 38 games, an indication in itself of how difficult it is to predict what will come later. They were eighth after losing the Selhurst Park over the weekend, only for Fulham to move over them with a surprise victory on Liverpool on Sunday, a result that concluded an unbeaten race of 26 games for the Champions-Elect.

Six points separate Brighton and Chelsea in fourth place. The race is so congested that the semifinalist palace of the England Cup has an external possibility of doing Europe through their championship position, and are located in the lower half of the table. The eleventh building is four points behind Brighton with a game in his hand.

In the corresponding phase of last season, Brighton was four points and a worse place under Hurzeler’s predecessor, Roberto De Zerbi. They therefore won only one of the last seven championship matches, losing four, to finish 11th, a point and a place under Palace, having left the Europa League in the round-of 16 phase in March 2024 with an aggregate defeat of 4-1 against Roma.

Hurzeler will not want to repeat that scenario after becoming the first brighton boss for 93 years to lose both championship meetings with Palace in the same season (they were also beaten 3-1 at the Amex stadium in December).

With all those who still have about 20 % of the season to play (the Newcastle United in fifth place also has a game in his hand on Brighton), there is a high change of change before music stops with the final round of fixtures on May 25.

How difficult is Brighton’s run-in?

According to the power rankings of Opta – A global classification system containing over 13,000 clubs evaluated between zero (lower) and 100 (higher) – The difficulty of the remaining matches of Brighton is classified towards the means of those who face the 20 sides of the Premier League.

Encouraging, three of the five clubs directly in front of Brighton in the race for Europe (Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa in seventh square) are seen as having more difficult shots, as well as the two behind them-Bournemouth in the 10th and Palace.

The problem is that the only coherent feature of the Brighton season so far has been the inconsistency, which extends to what are considered easier, more demanding or difficult devices in the opta model.

Take the three teams at the bottom of the table, heading straight to the championship after their promotions in the summer. Hurzeler’s team designed their games at home with the city of Southampton and Ipswich already relegated, and has also concluded the whole square against Leicester City.

The reverse of the medal designed both games with Arsenal in second place and took four points from the six off the coast of Manchester City. This shows that it is difficult to know what to expect from Hurzeler’s Brighton from one game to another, but we will try.

What can we expect from their remaining home games?

Leicester’s visit Saturday is the type of banana or “skin skinBanana‘As Hurzeler calls him, whom Brighton fans came to fear.

Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s team created an unwanted story with the 3-0 defeat on Monday from Newcastle. This result means that I am the first team in the 137-year-old history of the Football League to lose eight games in the following home without scoring even a single goal, a sequence that extends on the tie of the arrest time of Bobby de Cordova-Reid in their 2-2 draw with Brighton in December.

That game was a chronic waste of two points from visitors: Hurzeler’s team was two goals and reached victory until Jamie Vardy halved the advantage in the 86th minute. The anxiety of supporters will not be helped by Vardy’s perspective in the face of an improvised defense without the Jan Paul Van Hecke suspended In this reverse device. The former England striker has seven goals and four assists in 12 appearances in the Premier League against Brighton.

The second return of Graham Potter to the Amx, with West Ham United on April 26, will not have the same advantage as when the former head of the club coach returned with Chelsea less than two months after stopping at the beginning of September 2022 to hire work at Stamford Bridge. Conventional wisdom decrees the teams without anything to play for are ideal opponents in the back of a season. West Ham adapts perfectly to that invoice as, although there are only two places free from the relegation area, they have an advantage of 15 points on the third fund IPswich.

Brighton and Fulham are the only teams to have beaten the Newcastle twice this season, with Danny Welbeck who scored the winning goals at St James’ Park in the championship in October (1-0) and in the extra time of a tie for the FA Cup of the FA Cup in March (2-1). A lot rests at the forefront of Welbeck and Joao Pedro, With Georusto Rutter probably for the rest of the season Due to an ankle injury.

The Newcastle will be dangerous opponent to the Amx on May 4th. Supported by putting an end to the 70 -year -old club of the club for a large trophy in the final of the Carabao Cup last month, they are refocalized to end up high enough to qualify for a second Champions League campaign in three seasons.

A place in the UEFA Blue-Romband Club competition is already a fact for Liverpool and therefore, surely, it is the title, with an advantage of 11 points on the Arsenal in second place. This means that they should rather be suitably on the beach when they arrive in the city on the penultimate weekend of the season.

Will the away matches be more demanding?

Brighton is seventh in the Premier League trip table, compared to the tenth of the home version, so having fewer transmission games to come to their remaining seven is not necessarily an advantage.

The most difficult of the three seems to be the next, in Brentford during the Easter weekend.

The games between the clubs owned by former Betting Sport colleagues have become enemies Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham They are usually tight. Five of their seven meetings in the Premier League were designed or decided by a goal of a goal. They also have similar records this season, both winning 12 times and conceded 47 goals (Brentford has scored 51, two more than Brighton), so another close encounter is on the cards.

Thomas Frank’s team shake off the departure of the England striker without free score Ivan Toney in August in Ahli of Saudi Pro League, with Bryan Mbeumo and Yoaane Wissa who contributed to 30 league goals (16 and 14).

BRIGHTON’s record against Wolves is much better: only two losses in the 13 meetings of the Premier League. Wolverhampton’s men were beaten in the Amx in a tie of the Carabao Cup in September (3-2), followed by a draw there in the championship a month later (2-2) during the kingdom of Gary O’Neil. His Portuguese successor, Vitor Pereira, led the wolves from four points to the drift of security when he took over in December 12 points above the relegation area.

Suitably, given the unpredictable nature of the campaign, who knows what will be the result or circumstances at the Tottenham Hotspur on the day when Hurzeler’s first season ends? The Spurs are a miserable 14th in the championship in the second year under Ange Postecoglou, a campaign characterized by their visit to Brighton in October. From the beginning 2-0 in half time, they crumbled, conceding three goals in 18 minutes at the beginning of the second half to lose 3-2.

Postecoglou’s work is online, but the Australian could still save the Tottenham season by winning the Europa League-Sono at home for Eintracht Frankfurt in the first stage of a quarter of Thursday. The Europa League final takes place in the Spanish city of Bilbao four days before Brighton’s visit.

Rutter shoots the Brighton equalizer at home against Spurs (Glyn Kirk/Getty Images)

Where should they end up doing Europe?

A good question. Unfortunately, it is impossible to say, considering the exchanges Recorded by clubs potentially qualifying for more than one competition, with a chain impact on the number of places available for the British sides.

In certainly unlikely circumstances, the team that ends 11 could qualify (this would require, among other things, villa to win the Champions League, Spurs or Manchester United to win the Europa League and Chelsea to win the Conference League).

With the Premier League almost certain to get a fifth place in the Champions League for the next season, and the winners of the Carabao Newcastle Cup who look in a good position to seal at least one place of the Europa League through their position in the championship, would not be too taken to take on that the European places of the first flight will extend at least for anyone who arrives seventh.

Preditor of the Premier League of OptaWhich projects the final ranking simulating the remaining games thousands of times to calculate an average result, it offers Brighton a probability of 17.3 percent to finish seventh or higher.

Brighton has challenged the probability a few times in the year of Hurzeler’s debut – for good and evil – and they may need to do the same if they want to return to the European competition next season.

(Photo above: Joao Pedro and Brighton are chasing the European qualification with seven left matches; Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)