For Republicans, rates represent a risk like no one else

The time after a presidential election may seem like a moment of clarity. The results, after all, are finally inside.

But in the last two decades, the post-electoral period has not offered any clarity All about the future of American politics. The winning part is repeatedly convinced herself who has won a mandate or even a generational advantage. Shellshocking losers retire in internal debate. And then a few months later, it becomes clear that the next phase of American politics will not be what the winners have imagined.

This week, the next two years of American politics have started to focus on and does not look like a sorceress or a republican “Golden Age.” The special house election in Florida and the Supreme Court election In Wisconsin he confirmed that democratic voters were not actually amazed by submission from the elections last November. Even more important, President Trump Radical rates – and the economic recession that can follow – have created enormous political risks for the Republicans.

In a key aspect, Tuesday’s elections were not significant: they do not suggest that the Democrats have solved any of the problems that the last elections cost them. Instead, they mainly reflect the advantage of the party Among the most informed, instructed and civilian voters. This advantage allowed the Democrats to excel low transformation elections During the Trump era, even if he made it enormous earnings Among the young non -affected and disengaged young voters, of the working class and non -white that present themselves only in the presidential elections.

However, the Democrats will not face many of those disaffected and disengaged voters until 2028. The results of last Tuesday therefore offer a plausible preview of the next years of elections: important democratic victories, even in the medium term elections next year.

There may not have been anyone who marched with pink hats and the democrats of the congress could have been “play dead“, But the special democratic electoral force seems equally large in 2017 and 2018, before the so -called blue wave Upside down control of the house.

Perhaps this should not necessarily be a surprise: that’s what happened the last time Mr. Trump won. But that’s not what the triumphant republicans or discouraged Democrats had in mind in the wake of the victory of Mr. Trump, when apparently there was no no “resistence“To Mr. Trump and the”vibrations“It seemed to enhance a large cultural change on the right.

The rates Announced WednesdayHowever, introducing a political problem of a completely different greatness for Mr. Trump and his party. No party or political is the recession test. Historically, even truly dominant political parties have undergone enormous political defeats during the main economic recessions.

In none of these cases – not even with the notorious Smoot-Hawley Tariff -The President could be held responsible for recession with himself evidently as today. And whatever could have been after the elections, the Republican party is not even close to politically dominant.

If anything, Mr. Trump and Republicans today could be particularly vulnerable, since much of his political force is built on the economy. Throughout his time as a politician, he has usually gained his best assessments on the management of economic issues. He benefited from his reputation as a successful businessman and an effective economic management in his first term. He won the last elections, despite enormous personal liabilities, largely because the voters were frustrated by high prices and economic upheavals that followed the end of the pandemic.

In New York Times/Siena College National Surveys Last autumnOver 40 percent of the voters who supported Mr. Trump in 2024 but not 2020 said that the economy or inflation was the most important question for their vote.

Even before the rates of this week, Mr. Trump had squandered his post-Electoral Honey Moon. His Approval evaluation He had gone back 50 percent, back to where he was before the elections. His First threats Increase rates, including partners such as Canada, Mexico and Europe, probably played an important role in decreasing its support. In an inversion of the usual model, the latest polls had discovered that Mr. Trump’s assessments on the economy were even worse than his overall approval evaluation. There were other indications that his actions had taken a first political tribute: consumer trust was decreasing, inflation expectations were increasing and polls discovered that the rates themselves were generally unpopular.

All this pales compared to the rates issues Mr. Trump on Wednesday. It is obviously too early to judge the full economic effect and therefore the political repercussions. It could also be too early to get to know Trump’s latest tariff policy. For the same reason, many supporters of Mr. Trump will give politics a chance. His approval evaluation may not immerse himself during the night.

But if the rates cause a recession and increase significant prices, as many economic analysts are expected, an immersion approval evaluation could only be the beginning of its problems. While Mr. Trump it might no Run for the re -election (third term dreams Despite), many republicans will be – and many of them were never completely on board with rates in the first place. Yes, half a dozen republican senators supported the legislation to curb the authority of the president to impose rates. This is not at all close enough to overcome a presidential veto, but it is an unusual level of republican opposition to Mr. Trump, and the time for the construction of the opposition is not nowhere.

If the economic impact is quite serious, dissatisfaction with the Trump administration could combine with the long -standing democratic advantage to make the Republican states apparently safe in 2026 – thinks that Kansas, Iowa and Texas – they seem plausibly competitive, perhaps also together with the control of the Senate. The continuous support of the Republicans of the Congress of (or acquiescence a) Mr. Trump – both on rates and for his other excesses, could be at risk.

For now, all these potentially extraordinary developments are in the distant future. They are not necessarily likely. But while the second mandate of Mr. Trump takes shape, it seems increasingly clear that the “golden age” increased by the post-electoral “vibrations” are even less likely.