“Invasion” bargers, underwater cables and surprise naval exercises: how China is testing Donald Trump | China

In the space of only five weeks, China has held exercises with live fire at the gates of Australia, Taiwan and Vietnam. He tested New landing barks On ships that could facilitate an amphibian assault in Taiwan. And he revealed deep cables tagliers with the possibility of deactivating the internet access of another country, a tool that no other nation admits to having.

China has flexed the maritime muscle in the Indo-Pacific to send a message of supremacy to its regional neighbors, the experts say. But he is also testing the thought of a bigger rival farther: Donald Trump.

Since Trump came in office in January, he and his cabinet members have concentrated their strategy in China on rates and have He launched a growing commercial war with Beijing. They had remained largely silent on growing acts of aggression of China in the marriage of Indo-Pacific.

This is starting to change.

April 1, the The United States Department of State sentenced Beijing “Aggressive and rhetorical military activities” in relation to military exercises without notice in the Taiwan Strait, which have become larger in scale in recent months and are increasingly resembled actual invasion. Who arrived in the wake of a visit to the region The secretary of the United States Defense Pete HegsethWhere he assured Japan and the Philippines that America would continue to defend them against China. He clarified that the United States had not changed his position as status quo on Taiwan and the Pentagon reiterated China on The greatest threat of us.

But the Indo-Pacific allies of the United States will want to listen to those insurance of Trump, who have not shown his cards on issues like Taiwan. To the question from a journalist in February for his position, Trump refused to be drawn And since then he hasn’t said anything about Taiwan. He is not afraid to diverge his senior directors and his Random approach to Ukraine Ceasefire Talks -And rates-there little trust that the president has a coherent and long-term strategy on each global deal.

“The Chinese are looking at what is happening with the Trump administration and seeing until what they can push things,” said Malcolm Davis, Senior analyst of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

And in their Trump tests, it is likely that the seas around China will become more restless, Davis said, adding that China will continue to bring down its exercises in Taiwan Strait and target countries with which it has territorial disputes, including the Philippines and Japan.

“China will be more willing to impose the risk of victims on the Philippines through the ships that are unleashed and so on. It could pass by Using the water cannon To something a little more aggressive, “said Davis.” The goal is to intimidate Manila in accepting China’s interests “.

How strongly involved, the US military should enter the Indo-Pacific and how much the United States should go to protect Taiwan China These are problems that divided most of the high Trump officials, according to a former staff of the State Department who worked in the first weeks of Trump in office.

“There are certainly several competing fields that you could compare to a royal court, all in competition for the last word and influence with Trump,” said the former staff. “There is certainly a division on Taiwan’s policy among the traditional Natsec people like (Marco) Rubio and (Mike) Waltz against Maga.”

But which side Trump is found is not clear.

Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute international security program, said that it was known that a faction of the Trump administration wanted to move away from Europe. “But it is not clear that it agrees with the second part, doing more in Asia,” he said.

What is clear from Trump’s posture in the interviews in Ukraine is that it is open to organize business on trade and the main geopolitical issues on the same table. He also has a tendency to change his position on a topic in a few days.

Beijing will look to see how Trump swaying. If Vladimir Putin in Russia can hit a large deal with Trump using economic incentives in exchange for Ukrainian land, Beijing could try to do the same with Taiwan.

And this is causing anxiety among the closest allies of the United States in the Indus-Pacific, said Jenny Schuch-Page, managing the principal in energy and sustainability with the Asian group based in Washington. “The prospect of a” big deal “with China will also be wary of countries in Southeast Asia on how they will do,” he said.

A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, did not comment if Beijing was looking for such an agreement, but he said that China “deploorei” the criticisms of the United States to its exercises near Taiwan, calling them “an incorrect capture of the facts and a truth and an interference in China’s internal affairs”.

What Trump will focus on is to remain competitive with China, which is ahead of areas including artificial, robotics, electric vehicles and internet 6g.

The lack of a long -term China strategy is problematic, according to Danny Russel, former American diplomat and vice -president of security and international diplomacy with the Asia Society Policy Institute of Washington.

It indicates the mass shots in the country’s intelligence services, which included the license of researchers in China dedicated by the CIA, such as a dangerous move in terms of safety and the United States bargaining position in commercial interviews.

China will probably try to recruit those fired for its intelligence gathering in the United States, he said. A Reuters Report It suggests that it is already.

“We are blinding ourselves at a time when national security and economic interests of the United States and our allies ask for clarity,” said Russel.

THE Defunding of Asia Radio Free -As of Voice of Voice of America-another goal, Russel said, cutting a precious source of information from China and other countries that are difficult to report, such as North Korea.

“It is a kind of unilateral disarmament in the information space at a time when China, Russia and North Korea are increasing,” said Russels of the cuts. “Why are we voluntarily giving up our best competition tools? There is a big difference between shortening the belt and self-sabotage.”

This can become a concern for safety for countries such as Australia, which has a long tradition of sharing the intelligence back and forth with the United States. China is likely to increase its missions in international waters near Australia, Davis and Roggenveen have said, therefore a reliable flow of information on China is crucial.

A Chinese research ship that makes a tour this month in Australia is an emblematic example. His Yi Hao has traveled for more than two weeks in international waters near the southern and western coasts of Australia, near the underwater communication cables – critical infrastructures that Allows Australians to send everything, from and -mail to military secrets.

“I would prefer that it was not there”, it is as much as the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese could say when he was asked by journalists for his thoughts.

Without a strong signal on the Trump region, there may be more Chinese ships to come.