Like Brexit, a surprising act of economic self -harm, has prefigured Trump rates

Great Britain has seen the rates of President Trump with a mix of shock, charm and nauseating recognition. After all, the country embarked on a similar experiment in economic isolationism when he voted to leave the European Union in 2016. Almost nine years after the Brexit referendum, costs are still in consideration.

The lessons of that experience are suddenly relevant since Mr. Trump uses a similar playbook to erect the walls in the United States. Once the critics described Brexit as the largest act of economic self -harm by a western country in the era of the Second World War. Now it could be a race for his money through the Atlantic.

Even the abrupt inversion of Mr. Trump last week of some of his rates, in front of a revolt from the bond market, Britain remembered, where Liz TrussA short -term prime minister was forced to retire from cuts to radical taxes that frightened the markets. His abused experiment was the culmination of a cycle of extreme policies that started from the decision of Great Britain to abandon the largest commercial block in the world.

“In a sense, some of the worst legacies of Brexit are still ahead,” said Mark Maloch Brown, a British diplomat who was deputy secretary general of the United Nations. Great Britain, he said, now faces a difficult choice between the reconstruction of commercial ties with Europe or preserving them with Mr. Trump’s America.

“The fundamental problem remains the violation of our greatest commercial partner,” said Malloch Brown, adding, “if the United Kingdom ends up in the arms of Europe because neither of them can work with the United States, it is only half a victory”.

Mr. Trump was a full -blown Brexit champion in 2016, drawing explicit parallelisms between it and the political movement that Marshalling was. Initially it has imposed lower rates on Great Britain compared to the European Union, which some launched as a reward for the decision of Great Britain to leave.

Brexit’s resistance on the British economy is no longer much discussed, although its effects have sometimes been difficult to destroy by the subsequent shocks delivered by the Pandemia del Coronavirus, the war in Ukraine and, now, by the rates of Mr. Trump.

The Office for the responsibility of the government’s budget estimates that the overall commercial volume of Great Britain is about 15 percent lower how much it would have been if it had remained in the European Union. Long -term productivity is 4 percent lower than it would have been due to commercial barriers with Europe.

Productivity was late even before Brexit, but the breakdown with Europe aggravated the problem by sowing uncertainty, which cooled private investments. The years between the referendum and the formal departure of Great Britain at the end of January 2020 were paralyzed by the debate on the terms of its release.

By mid -2022, investments in Great Britain were lower than 11 % than it would have been without Brexit, based on a model by John Springford, who used a basket of comparable economies to support Britain Non Brexit. The trade trade was 7 % lower and the gross domestic product of 5.5 percent less, according to Mr. Springford, a member of the Center for European Reform, a Think Tank in London.

Mr. Trump has started even more volatility by imposing, doubled and then pauseing various rates. His actions, of course, strike dozens of countries, more dramatically in the United States and China. There are already recession forecasts and a new inflation attack.

Brexit and its consequences have had more second -order effects, both economic and political. Mrs. Truss’s plan for the tax cuts financed by the debt, which were guided by the desire to skip the torpid economy of Great Britain, instead triggered a selling of British government securities while the investors retired from its proposals.

A similar Sell-off of American bonds began last week, with vast implications for the United States. The yields of the bonds increases put pressure on governments because it means that they have to pay more to borrow funds. Sell-offs are also destabilizing because they report a deeper anxiety for the credit of a country’s credit.

In the case of Great Britain, the fears of a credit crisis forced Mrs. Truss to put aside the tax cuts and soon lost her job. While this calmed the markets, he left a residue of doubt among the investors on Great Britain. Mortgage rates remained high for months, reflecting what An analyst Tagged in disconcerted way “Moron Premium. “

This sparkness among investors forced the British chancellor of the exchange, Rachel Reeves, from taking more daring measures to recharge the economy. Last week, Prime Minister Keir Stager excluded the relaxation of the government’s self -imposed tax constraints, citing the repercussions of the free market experiment of Mrs. Truss.

“I would say that the reason why we have such a small conservative chancellor is due to the experience we had with the trustee,” said Malloch Brown. “It is directly related to not wanting to request the effect of the goat.”

Unlike Great Britain, the United States still have the default currency of the world in the dollar and until last week the Treasurie remained a paradise for investors. But economists provide that both will be subjected to greater pressure under Mr. Trump.

“Trust has been shaken, the bond constraints are more vigilant,” said Richard Portes, professor of economics at the London Business School. “People are now much more sensitive to the political inhabitant and the irresponsibility of policies”.

Brexit also reduced the influence of Great Britain on the diplomatic phase, something that has just started to recover the efforts of Mr. Starmer to act like a bridge between Europe and the United States.

The withdrawal of Mr. Trump from the role of America as a security umbrella for NATO has brought Great Britain closer to Europe. But the British still fight with the legacy of Brexit. A defense pact with the European Union, for example, is supported by the request of France that Great Britain makes concessions on fishing rights – an old chestnut from the negotiations on Brexit.

The longest effect of Brexit, analysts say, may have been in politics. The years of bitter debate divided and radicalized the conservative party, which ruled from 2010 to 2024 with a patchwork of immigration policies and trade that reflected the bulky coalition behind Brexit.

Some Brexiteers have pushed a vision of Great Britain as a low-tax nation, slightly regulated and free by freedom-solder-on-long, in their strip. Others wanted a stronger state role in the economy to protect workers in the left hinterland with open borders and devastation of the global economy.

These contradictions led to policies that often seemed to be in contrast with the Brexit message. Great Britain, for example, has recorded a record increase in net migration in the following years to leave the European Union. The difference was that more than these immigrants came from southern Asia and Africa and less from central and southern Europe.

Brexit supporters sold the project as a magical bullet that would have solved the problems caused by a globalized economy, not otherwise by the statements of Mr. Trump according to which the rates would be an advantage for the public stock exchange and a remedy for the inequalities of global trade. In no case, did the experts say, there is such a panacea.

“The truth is that Brexit has not corrected any of the problems caused by deindustrialisation,” said Tony Travers, professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “If anything, Brexit worsened them.”

The frustrations for the economy and immigration were among the reasons why the voters swept away the conservatives in favor of the Labor Party of Mr. Starmer last year. But his government has continued to fight with these problems, as well as with the bruised consequences of British divorce from Europe.

Trump’s sorceress coalition has some of the same ideological fault lines as the Brexiteers, staging economic nationalist such as Stephen K. Bannon against Globalists such as Elon Musk. This led analysts to wonder if post-trump policy in the United States will look a lot like post-Brexit policy in Great Britain.

“Brexit caused profound damage to the conservative party,” said Professor Travers. “He was rendered irregular because he is torn from the factions. The Republican Party will be in the same way trimmed after Trump?”