March Madness, the most exceptional probability of the players, choices before Final Four: Cooper Flagg is the one to beat

The prize for the most exceptional player seems to be Cooper Flagg to lose. With almost +105 probability of winning it, Flagg is also the presumptive national player of the year and probably the number 1 for the NBA draft of 2025.

If Duke wins -ei Blue Devils are -110 on Betmgm to claim the title -it is difficult to imagine that someone else has the honor.

Of course, it is possible, although unlikely, that a player of a losing team takes the crown of the Mop home.

In the history of the male tournaments, a player of a non -peak team won the most exceptional player only 11 times. Four of those times, the player was in a team that did not even make the championship match: Hal Lear of the Temple of third place in 1956, Art Heyman of the Duke of third place in 1963, Bill Bradley of third place Princeton in 1965 and Jerry Chambers of Fourth (!)-Place Utah in 1966.

Howard Porter is the lonely player whose Mop Award, with Villanova in 1971, was left free because of an eligibility problem. Villanova was the second classified for the UCLA that year, so it would be the twelfth in the list of non -winning Mop if his prize was.

Houston’s Akeem Olajuwon (later he changed in Hakeem) was the most recent player who won Mop in the losing team – back in 1983.

Curiosity: In the history of the female tournament, only a player has ever received Mop honors without being in the championship team. That player? Nothing more than Dawn Staley. Stley was named the greatest player in 1991 when he brought his Virginia Cavaliers to the championship match, where they lost against Tennessee. This year it took Sportbook More time to release probability for the female Mop of those of men. But Thursday, Betmgm published Paige Bueckers as a favorite -150, well before the second and third favorite, Chloe Kitts (+850) of South Carolina (+850) and Madison Booker of Texas (+900).

On the part of the men, Flagg is, and it was the favorite of bets for the most exceptional player. The next on the probability scoreboard is Walter Clayton Jr. (+375) of Florida and Johni Broome of Auburn (+700). Two Houston players are the next, LJ Cryer (+1000) and Milos Uzan (+1200), then he returned to Duke with Kon Knueppel (+2000).

We collected some staff choices before the last four men’s advice. But first, here is the complete card of Betmgm.

Choose for the NCAA Men’s Tournament 2025 ODDS

And Santaromita: Cooper Flagg (+105). Before the tournament, I chose Auburn, but Duke seemed the most impressive, and Flagg showed why the NBA teams are stumbled on each other to take it. He is the best player of the best team. Keep it simple.

Jess Bryant: Cooper Flagg (+105). The way I see it, if Duke beats Houston, Flagg wins on Johni Broome and Walter Clayton Jr. The most probable scenario (and sports books have it in this way) is that Duke and Florida meet in the final, putting Clayton and head flag -headed for the prize. When Flagg is on the pitch, the prolific serial number and the first choice presumed in the draft of the NBA is the best player there. It is a generational talent, and this is not true for anyone else running for the prize. His lowest score (14) came against Mount St. Mary’s when he only played 22 minutes. Against Arizona in The Sweet 16, he scored 30 points, six rebounds, seven assists, a theft, three blocks and a turnover in 37 minutes. Every team playing in Duke knows they have to contain flags and cannot. Auburn or Florida will not be able to manage it, and Flagg will be the unanimous winner of the prize for the most exceptional player.

Brandon Funston: Walter Clayton Jr. (+375). As a general of Florida, Clayton is the straw that shakes the Gatorade. It is the top scorer of the tournament that heads towards the Final Four and has delivered clutch moments, such as marking 13 points along the stretch in the Eight elite against Texas Tech to dig in Florida by a two -digit deficit. I have Florida who wins everything, and if this materializes, Clayton is the obvious choice of Mop.

Hannah Vanbiber: LJ Cryer (+1000). I like to make a bet with my head and a bet with the heart. Cooper Flagg is the intelligent bet here, and most of us was in anticipation of flags when they opened 3 to 1. But with my heart: I cheer for Houston and I would like to see Lj Cryer get the prize. In the words of The Athletic’s Lindsay Schnell“Cryer could be 6-1, but everything he does is win and hit big shots. He is the best 3-point shooter in San Antonio, connecting to 41.85 percent of his attempts.” It is absolutely a long shot, but in a single tournament, everything is possible!

Mike Hume: John Broome (+700). Walter Clayton Jr. (+375). I am tempted to bring Johni Broome here to +700 (starting from Wednesday afternoon) for the value. After going in full Willis Reed and returning to the Élite eight of the tigers after having victories to his left leg and right elbow, there is a narrative factor that would have made sports writers empty. Since they understand the voting panel for the prize (together with sportsmen), I have no problem seeing how this can happen. However, Auburn should have first obtained Florida and the tigers lost 9 (at home) against the Gators in their only meeting this season. If Broome is at all limited to be slammed (at least shoot for Mancini), I don’t see Auburn prevail. However, Broome is my “Sportswriter would kill to write this story”.

But my head favors Florida Walter Clayton at +375. It provides the best combination of team talent and a player who was the clear Alfa during this tournament race.

Victor: Clayon Jyaton disappears. (+375). I am absolutely in love with Walter Clayton Jr. right now! It is giving me Steph Curry to Davidson’s vibrations in several places during this tournament, and especially after his end -of -the -level heroics in the Eight elite. I also love the way he started his university career as a 0 -star recruit. What a player! What a story!

This guy is so fun to watch! https://t.co/nofm5hajxe

– Vik Chokshi (@docksquad33) March 30, 2025

I chose Florida to win everything before the start of the tournament, and I’m landing here, despite Duke played like a well oiled car right now. This is also a way to get a little more bang for your dollar, since Florida is currently at +300 to win the title. If the Gators cut the nets, the Mop hardware will almost be guaranteed in Clayton, so you would win another couple of dollars at +375. Hey, every dollar matters when it comes to betting!

If you like long -term bets, take a look at Lj Cryer at +1000. The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode He made a nice case for Houston potentially being Duke’s Kryptonite. If the cougars have shocked the blue devils, the chances of Cryer’s Mop will move drastically.

(Photo of Cooper Flagg: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)