MLB Win Total Best Bets: 4 teams that should swear their number
The opening day of MLB is finally upon us. Well, technically, it is the opening day for 28 teams after the season not officially in Japan last week. But just like any other sport, the Futures market is already open for businesses, and this means that we can try to find a certain value in the total market of victories.
Similar to the other sports that model, I take various metrics and create projections for each team. Baseball is a sport one by one (vs. launcher) who are able to make a projection for each individual player. These projections are then bounced into a team projection based on the game time. From there, I can simulate the season 100,000 times to find how many games I expect each team to win.
It is a long, long season, and with the Futures market that has increased for most of the season in your favorite Sportsbook, I would recommend not to go crazy here. There are many opportunities to be involved in a team in a month, considering that the chances should not move too drastically as they do, to say, football, from one week to the next. As always, buy the best price.
*** All bets must win a unit on favorites and risk a unit on losers unless otherwise indicated.
Best 2025 million Win Totals Bets
Reading athletics over 71.5 wins (-118)
They may not have a city connected to their name for this season, but it does not prevent me from jumping on the chariot of A. My projections are not super strong in any team of Al West, which means that I am about to crowd towards the bottom of the division, which makes me a little nauseated. As always with the A, you will need some nameless guys to get out of nowhere and swear, but there is quite talent in this list, in particular the beats, to see the positive side of reaching 75 wins or so. My biggest concern is the initial rotation, since I am not sure that the positive side is equally high. The offense will have to mark enough races to give Mason Miller more tightly the possibility of closing the door.
Atlanta Braves over 93.5 wins (-134) (to win 0.5 units)
I am halfway to say that the Braves challenge Dodgers for the best MLB record at the end of the year, and it is likely that they sprinkle something about them at +700 to do it. The positive side of Phillies and Mets gives me some pause, but it will not shock me to see the Braves to get to the triple -figure wins this season. Spencer Screer seems to have returned to May and Ronald Acuña Jr. is not so far away. And even without those two, the Braves still have one of the best lists of the National League. Health will be a key to them – as it is with everyone – but the gap between this team of Braves in full health and the Dodgers is not what you think.
Los Angeles Angels out of 72.5 wins (-114)
While the Dodgers have rightly attracted all attention in the city of Los Angeles, in reality I will be bullish on the angels next season. As I have already said of A above, I don’t like any team in the West, which is leaving a value at the bottom of the division. I am not excited to support the angels, but if they manage to obtain a repeated performance since 2024 of 2025 from Tyler Anderson and obtain quality inning from Jack Kochanowicz, then the rotation is not bad. I don’t think this is a playoff team for a sudden, but the victories of the mid -70s? Of course, why not.
San Francisco Giants over 79.5 wins (-108)
Much of the success of this formation will depend on the fact that Jung Hoo Lee can take the next step forward as a batter, and if it does so, then this offense of giants could be a little lively. The upper half of the formation will not present stars, but there are some quality beats to mark some runs. As for the launch staff, there are many questions regarding the initial rotation after Logan Webb, but once again, there is the rise here. I am not going to say that Justin Verlander remained a lot in the tank at the age of 42, but leaving Houston and San Francisco should help him while he is a Moscow ball pitcher. Also, don’t sleep on Robbie Ray in that baseball field.
St. Louis Cardinals over 75.5 wins (-122)
This is probably my least favorite bet of the group. The only thing I like is that I am not excessively affected by any team of the NL Central, and this is probably the reason why I have value on the cardinals. I am a little low with the beer producers and the reds and a little upper on the cardinals. Which worsens in a bet on the cardinals. Maybe I should have faded one of those two to have a under paper that headed for the season, but unfortunately. St. Louis’s success this season will probably be determined by the initial rotation. Sonny Gray was fantastic, but he is raising in age and after, they hope for some bounce campaigns. Erick Fedde fell in the second half of last season, Miles Mikolas has not been good for some time, and after that, you will depend on some young weapons. If young people can take the next step and Fedde returns to his first half of 2024, then 80 victories are in the cards.
(Photo by Ronald Acuña Jr.: Justin Berl / Getty Images)
