New talks with Iran – The New York Times
Tomorrow, the United States will resume nuclear negotiations with Iran for the first time since Tehran lost most of his forces by prosecutor, including thousands of fighters for Hamas and Hezbollah – and his bet that Donald Trump would not return to the Oval Office. No country has worked more hard on a nuclear bomb without building a really compared to the Islamic Republic. Nor has no country insisted stronger that she wouldn’t build a weapon.
Now, despite years of technical arrest bars, assassinated scientists and sabotaged nuclear structures, Iran is almost able to pull it away – if it says the political decision, say the western intelligence agencies. It could produce bomb level fuel in weeks and a weapon practicable from about a year to about a year. Israel is once again threatening military action and the United States have moved the B-2 invisible bombers in the radius.
Trump insists that military action will not be necessary if Iran makes an agreement, but must move quickly at the point of a gun. So the talks begin tomorrow in Oman between the personal negotiator of Trump, Steve Witkoff and the Iranian Foreign Minister.
I covered the Iranian nuclear program for more than two decades. Today I will explain what has changed in recent years and examine the possibilities that diplomacy can work.
Washington vision
After Iran looked at the United States output regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan, he stopped developing a nuclear head, concluded the American intelligence. But Tehran has maintained open options. It has improved in the e -revocation of uranium even if it insisted that the work was for power plants, medical isotopes and research.
Iran had this right under the treaty of nuclear non -proliferation. But the last five presidents feared that it would be too easy for theocracy – one who still seeks songs such as “Death to America” and threatens to erase Israel – to make a bomb.
So Israel killed a number of Iranian nuclear scientists. (The killers crossed the traffic to attack “sticky bombs” on their car doors.) The United States and Israel created a computer virus that seized the control of nuclear centrifuges and made them skip in the air.
The sabotage campaign contributed to bringing Iranians to the negotiation table with the Obama administration, China, Russia and some European nations. Iran agreed to send 97 percent of its nuclear fuel outside the country. But the agreement had weaknesses: Iran maintained its nuclear enrichment infrastructures and the agreement would have expired in 2030. In exchange, the United States and other nations raised economic sanctions. Obama bet that, over time, a younger generation would push Iran to a more western posture.
The agreement polarized the congress. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, has put pressure against it, claiming that the Iranians would betray. Trump retired from the agreement in 2018 – for the objections of the national security helpers who noticed that he was working. So, in 2020, Trump ordered the US military to kill an Iranian loved one who had supervised many of the region’s most fatal strikes on the Americans and their allies.
The Iranians promised revenge and tried to take on a successful team to assassinate Trump on the countryside track, according to an accusation last year. (Iran denies involvement.) He began to enrich the uranium to the level quality near the bomb. The country now has enough for about six bombs.
The view of Tehran
Iran detests Trump, who says that the country will be in “great danger” if he cannot conclude an agreement. But Trump is clearly more open than President Biden was.
Tehran’s officials feel defenseless, since Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi in Yemen – all nourished and provided by the Islamic Republic – have been affected. Iranian missile attacks on Israel last year were a failure. And the sanctions are still hurting.
I asked Rob Mallley, who worked on the 2015 agreement and then represented President Biden for the interviews with Iran who did not bring anywhere, as the Iranians think of the last two presidents. “Biden was warm for an agreement; Trump is eager. Biden is fixed on internal politics; in Trump he couldn’t care less. Biden was calculating; Trump, impulsive,” Malley told me. “Trump is throwing caution, prudence and logic in the wind. That’s why there is probably a greater possibility of a sort of understanding now than there has never been under the previous administration.”
In short, Trump benefits from “Madman Theory”: the Iranians believe they can give Netanyahu green light and weapons to attack – or even join the operation.
A possible deal
The Iranians clearly hope for an agreement like that of 2015: to give up some fuel supplies but retain the production capacity of the fuel. Trump’s national security consultant states that an agreement must request a “complete smanto” of the nuclear program, together with the ability to make missiles or support terrorist groups. Netanyahu says that Iranians have to “explode” their structures under American supervision. Of course, after reporting the 2015 agreement, Trump will be under pressure to obtain a better one that prevents Iran from reconstructing.
The most probable result for the weekend is that the two parts define what topics it is this negotiation. Trump refused Wednesday to say how long the talks could request. But American officials claim to be determined not to be blocked on each structure, temporal sequence and verification of compliance.
Of course, as discovered Trump in dealing with the Ukrainian war, if this problem was easily solved, it would have been solved a long time ago.
The latest news
Rates
Economy
-
The equity markets remained volatile: yesterday the S&P 500 decreased by 3.5 %, one day after it increased abruptly. Some titles around the world left slightly today.
-
Inflation has cooled In March. But economists warn that Trump rates will probably send higher prices.
-
Egg prices increased by about 6 % last month. Compared to a year before, They are raised more than 60 percent.
Immigration
Other great stories
Opinions
Conservatives should not cut funding to elite institutions. They should fill those institutions their high art, Mark Bauerlein He writes.
NWSL: The striker of the Spine Deyna Castellanos, who also plays for the Venezuelan national team, will not be able to join his team abroad due to Fears in looming travel restrictions.
Arts and ideas
The 78th edition of the Cannes Film Festival Opens this weekend. The films directed by Wes Anderson, Richard Linklater and Ari Aster are among the 19 films that will compete for the Palme d’Or, his first prize. The Festival will also present the premiere of “Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning” and the debut at the direction of Scarlett Johansson, “Eleanor The Great”.
