Opinion | Trump only bet the farm
Donald Trump is not known for having done his homework: he is more a guy boy type. What I find most terrifying of what Trump is doing today is that he seems to do largely assignment on his intestine to bet that can radically overturn the way the American institutions have operated and the way the nation connects both to its allies and enemies – and do everything well. As in, America will become stronger and prosperous, while the rest of the world will adapt. Subsequent question.
Well, what are the chances that Trump can get all these complex issues – based on trust in his intestine – when the same day he was announcing his enormous tariff increases of imports from the world, he invited the Oval Office Laura Loomer, a conspiracy theorist who believes that September 11 was a “in“Job. He was there, he reported my colleagues from the Times, to keep lessons on how much the unfair key members of the staff of the National Security Council were. Trump subsequently fired at least six. (It should not be surprised that so many Chinese asked me in Beijing last week if we had had a” cultural revolution “similar to Mao.
Yes, what are the chances that such a president, apparently ready to act on foreign policy on advice of a conspiracy theorist, have you obtained all this right commercial theory? I would say they are long.
What is Trump, with his intestine full of grievances, does not understand? The time in which we live today, although far from perfect or equal, is still widely considered by historians as one of the most relatively peaceful and prosperous in history. We are benefiting from this era of the Pacific largely due to a greenhouse of globalization and commerce, and also due to the domination of the world by a only benign and generous Egemon called the United States of America which is at peace and economically intertwined with its largest rival, China.
In other words, the world has been the way in which the world has been in the last 80 years because America has been as America was: a superpower ready to allow other countries to take advantage of it in trade, because the previous presidents have understood that if the world became constantly richer and more peaceful, and if the United States continued to obtain the same slice of global GDP – About 25 percent – It would still be prosperously prosperously because the total cake would become constantly larger. Which is exactly what happened.
The world was the way in which the world was because China brought more people from poverty faster than any other country in history, largely on the back of a giant and relentless export engine that has exploited the global free trade system engineered in the United States.
The world was the way the world was because the United States had the good luck of being delimited by two friendlies democracies, Canada and Mexico. Together the three nations intertwined a network of supply chains they have made all richerRegardless of the fact that many goods manufactured in North America could have a label that says: “Made from America, Mexico and Canada together”.
The world was the way in which the world was thanks to the alliance between the United States and both other members of NATO and the European Union, which, with the help of the United States, have maintained peace in Europe from the end of the Second World War to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This vast and prosperous trans-Atlantic partnership was a pillar of global growth.
The world was the way in which the world was because America had the government’s workforce that had, with its experience, the incorruptibility and financing of scientific research that was the envy of the world.
Trump is now betting that the world will remain as well as the world – became more prosperous and peaceful – even if it converts the United States into a predatory power ready to grasp the territory, such as Greenland and even if he sends the message to aspiring talented legal immigrants that if you come here, be very attentive to what you say.
If Trump turns out to be well – that we will still enjoy the economic benefits and stability that we have had for almost a century even if America suddenly moves from a benign hegemone to a predator, from the most important supporter of the world of free trade to a global giant tariff, from the European protector of European protection to say to Europe that is alone and by a defender of science to a country that has been in a topic European vaccine Outano as a European vaccine giant, from the European protector, by the European protector of the European Union. Dr. Peter Marks For refusing to accompany Quack’s medicine – I will remain correct.
But if Trump proves wrong, he will have sowed the wind and we as a nation will collect the vortex. But so it will also be the rest of the world. And I can tell you, the world is worried.
When I was in China last week, more than some people asked me if Trump was launching a “cultural revolution” as Mao did. Mao lasted 10 years – from 1966 to 1976 – and destroyed the entire economy after commissioning the youth of his party to destroy the bureaucrats he thought were opposing.
This question was so much in the mind of a high retired Chinese official who sent me an EE -mail last week, with a warning: Mao sent his young party paintings to attack “anyone who could think – dominant elites such as Deng Xiaoping, university professors, engineers, writers and journalists, doctors, etc. wanted to rape the entire population so that he could manage easily and forever” happening in the United States?
I hope not, especially for a reason collected by Stephen Roach, an economist of Yale with a long experience in China. When Mao’s cultural revolution took place, Roach observed, China was largely isolated and the effects were mostly warned within its borders. A similar cultural revolution in the United States today, observed Roach, could have a “deep impact” over the world.
