Russia and Ukraine agree on the cessation of the Black Sea: what to know

Russia and Ukraine have claimed to be busy stop fighting in the Black SeaBut it is not clear whether an agreement can soon enter into force – if not entirely.

Russia had a serious warning: it would have respected the agreement only after various restrictions were removed from its agricultural exports. The sanctions were imposed by the United States and the European Union and removing them would be an arduous process.

Kyiv and Moscow also seem to have different interpretations of the agreement with the Brunette of the United States announced on Tuesday. Russia framed As a way to relaunch an agreement supported by 2022, giving it some control over commercial expedition through the sea. Kyiv, however, he insisted this It would not allow the Russian Navy to return to the Western Black Sea, which Ukraine uses on its sea -based export route.

Underlining the distrust between the two countries, each part accused the other of violating the truce on Wednesday. Ukraine reported an attack on its port city of Mykolaiv, while Moscow said she had knocked down two Ukrainian drones on the Black Sea.

The conditions of Russia have highlighted how not in a hurry to end the war. With a nice administration to the White House and since its forces have the upper hand on the battlefield, Moscow has been determined to obtain as many concessions as possible.

What were the terms of Russia?

THE Said the Kremlin The maritime ceases unless his state bank and other financial institutions involved in the trade and fertilizers were not agreed with an agreement with a ceased agreement were connected to the international payment system known as Swift.

The system has its headquarters in Belgium, which means that the United States would have to press European regulators to agree on. In a declaration Information on the agreement, the White House promised that “would have contributed to restoring Russia access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports”.

Moscow has also said that Western companies restore the deliveries of agricultural equipment in Russia and the sanctions removed against its companies, ships and insurers involved in the trade of food and fertilizers.

Russia states that its exports of wheat and fertilizers reached $ 45 billion in 2023. Also during the war, Russia exported record volumes of wheat and fertilizers, said Andrei Sizov, director of Sovecon, a Russian advice.

If the penalties had been raised against a Russian state bank, the Kremlin could also use it for other transactions, said Aleksandr Kolyandr, a Russian analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

“The moment you have a bank without penalties, you can use it for what you want,” Kolyandr said. “It can be a tool to break the sanctions,” he said, but “it is much easier to monitor only one bank”.

What is Ukraine’s position?

While Kyiv said he would respect the ceased the maritime fire, he remains skeptical about Moscow’s intentions.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky president declared Tuesday that the question of Russia lifting sanctions has shown that “they are already trying to distort the agreements”.

Zelensky also said that the United States commitment to help support Russian agricultural exports was “a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions”.

Given the requests of Russia and the different interpretations that both sides have agreement, it is not clear what Ukraine earns. The experts note that the White House did not say if the agreement would protect Ukrainian ports from Russian attacks and allowed the reopening of the ports of Mykolaiv and Kerson – two requests that Ukraine had pushed during the negotiations.

Kyiv also has little interest in returning to the agreement supported by the United Nations of 2022 that Russia wants to relaunch. The agreement allowed Ukraine to export her wheat through a Black Sea corridor and Russia to inspect all commercial ships to make sure they did not transport weapons.

But Andrii Klymenko, the head of the Institute of Strategic Studies of the Black Sea, said that the inspections delayed exports so much that it made the non -profitable route.

After Russia retired from the agreement, Ukraine has obtained its shipping corridor from Pushing the Russian Navy outside the western parts of the Black Sea. Which allowed the exports of maritime wheat to return to pre-re-relief levels.

What could happen later?

Last week, in a telephone conversation with President Trump, President Vladimir V. Putin from Russia agreed to stop attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructures for 30 days. Ukraine, who was in favor of a ceased the immediate fire, followed the example. Both countries have reaffirmed their commitment to establish a 30 -day moratorium on energy strikes.

Tuesday, the Kremlin listed the structures that fall within the moratorium. This includes refineries, pipelines and storage systems, nuclear power plants, hydroelectric dams and energy transmission infrastructures. The Kremlin also said that from his point of view the moratorium had entered into force on March 18, the day of the call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin.

Both sides accused each other from attacking the electric grids last week. The situation of the ceased the ceased of energy highlights how Moscow has represented itself as open to negotiations without making important concessions.

Rustem Umerov, Minister of Defense of Ukraine, he said Tuesday That “further technical consultations” were necessary to effectively carry out energy and maritime agreements.