Trump has put America on the road to a deep economic crisis

Trump’s executive order in fact states that rates could be reduced if any commercial partner adopts “significant measures” to remedy the alleged abuse and “align sufficiently with the United States on economic and national security issues”.

But Trump has also with vehemence that will accumulate greater pressure on any country that dares to take revenge, since much of the world clearly intends to do. We must therefore assume that the tariff war will worsen, especially for America.

It also continues to insist on the fact that its “beautiful” rates will generate $ US6 trillion of revenue in 10 years, which means they will be permanent. The budget laboratory states that it will only collect half of that level once the “dynamic” effects of lower growth and economic damages have been taken into consideration. The American economy will be smaller than 0.6 percent in the long term and families will be poorer than $ US3800.

Needless to say, this modeling cannot capture the strength of emotion and political anthropology in world affairs. How to “score” what is Trump doing to European and Asian security systems?

Japan, Korea and Vietnam has thrown in the happy weapons of Xi Chinese Jinping. Nobody believes that a single word pronounced by the U.S. defense secretary Pete Hegseth while the region turns promising “credible deterrence”. They can see how it appears in Ukraine.

Trump has launched investors in Taiwan. He accused him of industrial theft and has now imposed rates of 32 %, although semiconductors wisely exempt.

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Should we be surprised if the Taiwanese people yielded to a Chinese block, which could happen first of what we all think? The United States can therefore discover that China collects TSMC chip patini, ensuring half of the world lithograph scanners of the world and 90 % of its advanced semiconductor capacity without a shot that is shot. Kissing goodbye to technological supremacy from us then.

The White House is right in a sense for global imbalances. Asia saves and invests too much. Consumes too little. China produces 31 % of the goods manufactured in the world but absorbs only 13 %. The rest floods the global market.

Europe is also guilty of margin. The tax and tax structure of the Eurozone led to a chronic surplus in the goods trade. The White House states that consumption is 68 % of GDP in the United States, 39 % in China, 49 % in Korea and 50 % in Germany.

Does the fault lies with the world or lies with us hedonism and a structural budget deficit greater than 6.4 percent of GDP? Both are guilty. But Great Britain is not arousing the US market with this method. It is an irreproachable victim involved in this dispute.

It is a fascinating self -deception to imagine that Great Britain was spared in the worst because it was hit only with a 10 % rate, forgetting the success of 25 % on steel and cars.

It is beyond the delusional progress from that false hypothesis to think that Great Britain may even take advantage of the almost complete destruction of Trump of the post -war safety system.

This country has chosen to be an independent commercial nation outside of any protectionist block, and I voted for this in the pre-trumpian world of Halcyon in June 2016. But this makes a little rowing that is around the rough oceans, hyper-dependent with stable trade and in the finance under the Ethos of the organization of world trade-death.

The greatest damage to the British economy derives from the recessionary shock in Europe and the drastic pins of global retaliation, not from the blow of the direct rates. It is aggravated by the diversion of exports from other countries excluded from the United States, both in steel of Chinese owner, and of cars produced by the EU.

Exports of British services in the United States can be shielded, but the business model of the service sector is not, since most of its revenues comes from the lubrication of trade and world investments.

Twenty countries have free trade (FTA) agreements with the United States. This did not make any difference when Trump attacked: 25 percent for Korea; 24 percent for Japan (partial commercial agreement). He brutalized Canada and Mexico even if they are part of the North American pact (Usmca) who negotiated himself. Nothing signs of the card on which it is written is worth.

Sir Keir Starmer is sentenced to remain calm and continue to push for a commercial agreement in the United Kingdom. But they do not have illusions even if it succeeds: any agreement will be hostage for wild mood swings to the White House, armed later to force the sorceress agenda on us or to give in to the cultural nihilism of the American technical brotherhood.

Trump could use it to try to go back and force the United Kingdom to recharge the economy.

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It would be nice to think that the United Kingdom may have it in both ways, guarantee a commercial agreement of the Atlantic and become a production platform for EU companies looking for access without rates in the US market. But do anyone think that Washington or Brussels will tolerate him for a long time?

Will the Commission teach the Brexit commercial agreement (TCA) next year if the United Kingdom has an agreement in love with the United States, ensured by the abandonment of commercial solidarity and bowing to any question from Trumpian?