Trump’s tariffs raise risk of global recession this year to 60%, JP Morgan warns

In the meantime, the weakest economy of Great Britain combined with the subtle head of the treasure leaves the United Kingdom exposed to a “negative spiral” similar to the collapse of the debt of Greece a decade ago, according to one of the largest investment companies in the world.

Neil Robson, head of the global actions of Columbia Threadneedle, said that the 2.8 trillion trillion debt pile of $ 6 trillion of $ 6 trillion), which almost exceeds the size of the economy, leaves it vulnerable as Trump’s rates increase the risk of a global recession.

Robson said: “We had a moment of Liz Truss in the United Kingdom. We could have a Labor version of this? Perhaps. I think it’s quite likely.”

He said that the current financial situation of Great Britain reflected the advantage of the collapse of the Eurozone when the bond markets turned aggressively against Greece when investors suddenly realized that the country could not balance its books.

He said: “If you think about the problem of being very indebted, you can be indebted as much as you want it as long as your nominal growth is higher than your interest rate”.

“But if your nominal growth growth of GDP – not only on a temporary basis – under the costs of interest, then you are in a real negative spiral, and can move very quickly. We have seen it with Greece during the great financial crisis.”

British chancellor Rachel Reeves had accumulated faster economic growth to compensate for the growing debt invoice of the United Kingdom in the next five years, but an economic collapse expected by the commercial war of the President of the United States has left that branded plan.

Trump slapped a 10 % flat rate on all nations, climbing up to 50 % for the worst.

Although Great Britain has fled with the 10 %flat rate, its exposure to the global economy means that the growth forecasts are probably reduced and could trigger a crisis for the United Kingdom debt, known as Gilts, which are purchased and sold by global investors.

‘Double Blow’ for Great Britain

Bruno Schneller, the CEO of Erlen Capital Management, warned that the bond markets could turn to the United Kingdom if investors lost confidence in the economic plan of Reeves.

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“The risks of Trump’s tariff blitz trigger a global stagflation shock – and for the United Kingdom, this is a recipe for a golden crisis,” he said.

“A slow growth, a higher inflation and a base of nerve investors could combine to push the highest kingdom loan costs as high in the worst possible time. This is not just commercial war Fallout; it is the type of external shock that can already break fragile debt markets.”

He added: “Trump rates could inflict a double blow to the United Kingdom-in B

A dramatic week follows for the global economy after the Trump Blitz rates scale has caught the surprise markets.

The turmoil also prompted JP Morgan to increase the risk of global recession this year to 60 % from 40 % while panic investors have shaken equity markets all over the world.

Although the GILT of the United Kingdom have been improved so far by Trump rates, investors have warned that it could soon change.

“If Trump is not correct for courses, this crisis will influence many different areas in global markets,” said Harald Berlinicke, partner of Sarnia Asset Management.

Risk of greater tax increases

The dark message comes shortly after the chancellor has reduced the benefits for well -being to restore £ 9.9 billion in the tax return. The office for the liability of the budget warned that in the worst case, a real commercial war risked sweeping away the entire margin of error that had left against its tax rules.

This means that after a tax collection budget of £ 40 billion pounds in October, Reeves could be forced to return for further tax increases in its autumn budget.

Trump promised to persist with his aggressive rates despite the blood bath of the market last week, insisting on the fact that “is going very well” and that the economy is “healing”.

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The turmoil would be “something we will remember for a long time,” said Robson.

“The risks of recession have clearly increased. I don’t see why at the moment there will be no recession. It is difficult to see what the solution is unless America returns back,” he said.

Some of the most important financial leaders in the world have warned Trump that his aggressive commercial policies will cause chaos by depressing growth and fueling inflation.

Jerome Powell, the president of the Federal Reserve of the United States, said on Friday that the president’s tariff increases were “significantly bigger than expected” and therefore the same would be “probably true for the economic effects”.

Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, also warned: “Tariff measures clearly represent a significant risk for global perspectives in a moment of slow growth”.

The trust of the companies had already collapsed by a third between half and the end of 2024, according to the announcements. The commercial association for aerospace, defense, security and space warned that half of the companies planned to cut investments this year.

Aimie Stone, the chief economist of advertising, said that the survey “should act as a warning sign that the confidence of the sector is falter”.

The Telegraph, London

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