Ukraine questions about the value of the Black Sea truce with Russia

The boat of the Ukrainian Navy patrol zipped through the Black Sea, its 25 millimeter double barrel machine gun blocked on the horizon. The enemy, in Russia, was not in sight, but always present. In the command room, captain Mykhailo and his crew scanned screens showing color coded areas that marked Russian charges and red arrows that monitor the drones that are around in the area.

The crew mission was to defend the waters from Odesa, the largest port city of the Black Sea, and keep them safe for commercial traffic. It was an exhausting job – eliminating the Russian mines during the day, breaking down the drones at night – but after more than a year of patrols together with other ships of the Ukrainian Navy, they succeeded.

The Russian Navy was pushed away from the Ukrainian coastsallowing the Ukrainian commercial expedition a Rebounds at almost pre -war levels. Tuesday, the fruits of the efforts of Captain Mykhailo materialized on the horizon: the silhouette of a 740 feet ship and blocked by Panama that slips towards a Ukrainian port to be loaded with wheat.

“Big Ship. Nice,” said Captain Mykhailo, speaking on condition that only his name and name are used, in line with the Ukrainian military rules.

Kyiv and Moscow committed themselves A ceased on the Black Sea Last month during separate interviews mediated by the United States, but the military and commercial results of Ukraine in those waters led many to Odesa to meditate on this question: does Ukraine have something to earn by such a respite?

Despite the cease fire commitmentCountries are still negotiating if or as it will enter into force. And the Navy officials and Odesa entrepreneurs used the delay to evaluate the pros and cons of the agreement. A ceased the fire could save the ports of the Russian drones and missiles, but it could also mean giving up the strategic advantage of Ukraine at sea, perhaps the only area of ​​the battlefield in which it holds over.

“I don’t want to cease fire,” said Tariel Khajishvili, head of Novik Llc, a Ukrainian shipping agent who operates in Odesa. “The only side that wants a ceasefire is Russia because they no longer control the Black Sea.”

Ukraine skepticism has only deepened Moscow conditions for a respite: The revocation of some western economic sanctions and a return to a previous agreement supported by the United Nations which allowed Russia to control commercial ships leaving Ukrainian ports for the inspections of weapons-two requests that are not starting from Kyiv.

“Why should we concessions now? We have actually closed the Black Sea,” Pavlo Palisa, senior military councilor of President Volodymy Zlelensky’s President of Ukraine, told journalists, indicating Kiev’s success in pushing Russian ships from the key parts of the sea.

The deep distrust also persists among the countries. Both parties have agreed in principle to temporarily stop strikes against energy infrastructures, only for accused of the affair of violations.

It is not clear whether one ceases the fire in the Black Sea will never have effect. Ukrainian military officials have noticed that Russia has abstained from the attack of Ukrainian ports from the talks last month, aligning with one of Kyiv’s main requests, but they warn that it is too early to call him truce.

The fact that Ukraine can now afford to reject a ceasefire in the Black Sea speaks of volumes of the drastic change in the fortunes there.

Shortly after Russia has launched its Vast scale invasion Three years ago, his navy ships arrived 15 miles from the Ukrainian coast, close enough to shoot it directly. Captain Mykhailo, 27, recalled a strike that “destroyed a reconnaissance station” on the southern suburbs of Odesa. In the city, The residents filled the sand To fortify the defensive positions, preparing an assault.

Russia has never managed to violate Odesa. But his navy controlled the Black Sea enough to block Ukrainian ports, suffocating the country’s economy e threatening global food safety Because Ukraine is an important cereal exporter.

A non -broker agreement In July 2022 he reopened a shipping corridor for Ukrainian exports, but only under an agreement that allows Russia to inspect all commercial ships for weapons. Kyiv said that Moscow deliberately slowed down inspections for strangling trade. After a year, barely two dozens of ships were Using the corridor every month.

Russia He retired from that agreement in July 2023complaining about the same economic penalties that he now tries to have raised and has threatened all the commercial ships that are headed to and from Ukraine.

To restart exports, Ukraine has started a campaign to reject the Russian Black Sea fleet, using marine drones and missiles to destroy or damage more than a quarter of its main war ships, According to the British defense intelligence services. The assaults forced Russia fleet to retire to the eastern part of the sea, far from the Ukrainian coasts, allowing Ukraine protect a new shipping corridor This embraces its coast before entering the territorial waters of NATO members.

Captain Mykhailo said his boat of patrol-a class island ship donated by the United States in 2021 – accompanies the commercial ships that sail from the Ukrainian coast, “provide safety from the mines, from the air attacks of Russia”.

More ships now travel through the new corridor that during the agreement supported by the UN. Exports of foods for the black sea also approach pre -war levels. Last year, Ukraine sent 42 million tons of cereals and seeds oily, about 80 % of its pre -war volume, according to data compiled by the Ukrainian Dragon Capital investment company.

In this context, the experts see few benefits for Ukraine in a ceased the fire of the Black Sea.

A return to the agreement supported by the United Nations, as requested by Russia, “can reverse all the success of the Ukrainian corridor guaranteed by the Ukrainian military, especially if the inspections of the ships are reintroduced,” said Natalia Shpygotska, Senior Analyst of Dragon Capital. “I can’t understand why Ukraine should accept” this question, he added. “It makes no sense.”

All Ukrainian could gain from a ceased the fire would be the end of the Russian strikes on its ports, the experts say. Those attacks have damaged several ships and destroyed numerous containers and wheat silos. At the height of the assaults, in the second half of 2023, the ability to export the ports of Odesa to 20 percent, according to Yurii Vaskov, a former deputy minister of Ukraine infrastructures.

The captain DMytro Pletenchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy, said that “for Ukraine, a ceased in the Black Sea mainly means stopping attacks on port infrastructures so that our wheat corridor can operate without interruption”.

“There is nothing more than Russia can offer us in this agreement,” he said during an interview in Odesa.

That offer, however, was absent from the statements of the White House Announcing the ceased the fire of the Black Sea last month.

Andrii Klymenko, the head of the Institute of Strategic Studies of the Black Sea, said not to expect the two sides to ever establish a maritime truce given their contrasting requests. Suspect that Russia wants to use the truce to move some of its ships to the central part of the Black Sea, something that Kiev has already warned Would push the counterattacks.

Again on the boat of Captain Mykhailo, a ceased the fire feels further away than ever. The iron boxes of machine guns sit ready to be used on the bridge. On Tuesday evening, the crew emptied many of them, shooting with Russian drones who hold towards Odesa and its suburbs.

“Unfortunately we were unable to break them down,” said Captain Mykhailo, although nobody seemed to have hit the ports that night, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

“For me, nothing changes,” he added. “He is fighting as usual.”

Daria Mitiuk, Oleksandr Chubko AND Maria Varenikova Contributed relationships.