Xi Jinping goes to the South -East Asia between the tariff war with us
While China faces itself with the United States for a punitive commercial war, it is under pressure to support its friendships all over the world, starting from its neighbors in the South -East Asia. But his relationships are complicated.
The Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, will tester these links this week while visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia in the hope of mitigating the effect of enormous rates imposed by President Trump on Chinese exports to the United States.
It is likely that Xi launch China as a reliable global partner in contrast with the unpredictable United States of President Trump, whose overcome and off-digain rates have overturned the financial markets and confused governments. While in Vietnam, for example, Mr. XI should supervise the signature of about 40 agreements, including the agreements that promote the plans for Vietnam to accept Chinese loans for a railway of $ 8.3 billion that connects northern Vietnam with China.
But his visit also indicates a diplomatic thread that countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia have to walk while the nations of the South -East Asia try to negotiate with the Trump administration for a recovery from rates.
The tour of Mr. XI will begin in Vietnam on Monday, followed by a three -day visit to Malaysia, which will end the week in Cambodia.
Exchange at the forefront
In the last decade, Beijing has engaged in a great push to extend its economic and political influence through the South -est Asia. China is now the most important commercial partner in the region. High officials, including Mr. XI, travel regularly there.
China is an important market for Vietnam’s agricultural products, while Vietnam matters raw materials from China for many factories that guide exports. Between 60 and 90 percent of raw materials for Vietnamese clothing that go to the US market come from China.
Trade, a complicated question, is likely to be at the top of the agenda. Captured between the US rates and the risks of Chinese goods that flood local economies, the South -East Asia is found with limited options.
Since Trump has imposed rates for Chinese goods in his first mandate, these countries have been alternative to those goods from reaching the United States. This made Vietnam and Cambodia a target for the strong rates of Mr. Trump, who made a break for 90 days.
These countries will also be concerned that due to the rates that Trump has maintained on Chinese assets, an excess of cheap Chinese goods, closures from the US market, could instead flow to the economies of the South -East and overpowering.
Mr. XI will want to know more about how other countries could respond to the US-China commercial war. It will also want to strengthen the links in the event that frictions occur, said Ja Ian Chong, professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
“There is the very real potential that RPC goods will begin to flow to these areas and questions about excessive ability, the potential Chinese dumping would have returned,” he said, referring to the People’s Republic of China. “So he must correct those relationships.”
Sonal Varma, the Economist of Asia, excluding Japan by Nomura, said that local economies would probably have introduced measures to prevent China from downloading its goods to local economies. “Every country is now trying to protect its turf,” he said.
Balance in China with the United States
As they are looking for opportunities from China, the leaders of the South -East Asia may also need to avoid appearing too close.
There are fears between some Vietnamese officials, for example, that the high profile nature of Mr. XI’s journey, as well as the language that emphasizes the partnerships of China, could make more difficult for Vietnam to win a long -term suspension from the rates of Mr. Trump.
“Vietnam certainly welcomes Xi’s visit to minimize its economic pain,” said Khang Vu, a visiting scholar in the Boston College political science department. “But he will have to avoid creating the impression that Vietnam sided with China while negotiating a tariff reduction with the Trump administration.”
The prime minister of Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim, defended the relations of the region with China during a recent gathering of his officials.
“China is a very important player that we cannot ignore and yes, some countries have problems with it,” he told the meeting. “We continue to navigate in the best possible way, to guarantee peace, security and obtain most of the benefits in terms of economics and investments”.
Safety and territorial disputes
Beijing also has financed the reconstruction of a large naval base in Cambodiagiving the Chinese military access to one of the most vital marine lanes in the world. While in Malaysia, Mr. XI should offer his support for existing agreements to build rail connections and ports in the country.
Zunaira Saiieed Relationships contributed by Kuala Lumpur, in Malaysia, Ya Narin by Phnom Penh, in Cambodia e Alexandra Stevenson from Hong Kong.
